As a result, the Emerson poll is the latest to show Trump ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
- The shift is notable and worrisome for Democrats and Biden’s reelection campaign. After the 2020 election, the liberal Brookings Institution declared that suburbs won it for Biden and predicted that they would become the party’s backbone.
- “In many ways, the 2020 election could represent a breakthrough for Democrats in the sense that the suburbs along with continued urban core support could make them competitive both in familiar ‘blue wall’ states as well as yet-to-be-conquered Sun Belt states,” said a Brookings report.
- But in just 17 months of economic and international turmoil and confusion, Biden has lost the suburbs, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll.
- Former President Trump has a nearly 12-point favorability advantage over Biden: 59% of voters say they are somewhat or very favorable of Trump, compared with 47% who are somewhat or very favorable of Biden. In a hypothetical 2024 election against former President Trump, Biden trails 45% to 42%.
- Notable demographic differences include region and education. Trump leads Biden among both suburban voters, 47% to 38%, and rural voters, 59% to 35%, while Biden holds 54% to 30% support among urban and city voters.
- Regarding education, Trump leads among those without a college degree, 51% to 33%, while Biden leads among those with a college degree or more 52% to 37%.
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