Political | Process

As to the timing of an invasion, the ground is expected to reach peak freeze around Feb. 15, the officials said.

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• That timeline and the growing number and capability of Russian forces close to Ukraine could suggest the window for diplomacy is shutting.

• The U.S. officials did not provide evidence to back up their estimates of Russia’s forces.

• As Russia masses more than 100,000 troops near the border, it has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met.

• Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand Washington and NATO have said is unacceptable.

• Washington believes Russia may choose other options than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision, the officials said.

• But they said Putin is putting in place a force that can execute all scenarios.

• A full-scale invasion would cause major casualties, one of the officials said.

• If Russia were to invade the capital of Kyiv, it could fall within a couple of days, the U.S. officials said.

• Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia’s troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to U.S. estimates, the official said.

SOURCE: REUTERS