Political | Process

As China becomes wealthier and more militarily capable, deterrence was upheld by the possibility that any attempt to use conventional military force to liberate Taiwan.

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• Given the United States overwhelming nuclear superiority during this era, and the credibility this lent to its implicit nuclear threat, this meant that the potential costs to Beijing of any cross-strait invasion were simply so high that no anticipated political benefit could justify the risk.

• Fast forward to today. Now, none of these conditions remain in place. Consider the changed conventional military balance.

• Beijing did not like having to back down during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 when the United States sent two carrier strike groups to Taiwan to deter Chinese aggression.

• It has spent the quarter-century since then modernizing its military so that it would never find itself in a similar situation again.

SOURCE: THEHILL